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All industries are influenced by increasingly complex dynamics. To understand those forces and to consider their impact on the future of the company is one of the most important management tasks. Nobody can do that without a proven, well established tool set for strategic planning. Such a method has to analyse the dynamics of the market and to provide the input for shaping a vision, the supporting strategy and the actions to be taken.
fair energy uses with its partners since more than 8 years successfully the method of future scenarios, which is constantly expanded and refined. It consists of two parts: EXTRAPOLATION and RETROPOLATION.
EXTRAPOLATION means to sift systematically through data and information from various sources such as industry reports and expert interviews to identify signals for change in industries earlier than anybody else. Those signals may stem from the industry itself, but very often also from other technological, political or societal developments. The individual fair energy partners focus on different industries, fair energy's main industry being the energy industry and the information technology industry.
In a first project step the project scope will be defined. Then the external environment is analysed and all drivers and inhibitors are summarized which may influence the industry or - even more concrete - the client's company. Influence matrices and cluster analysis is used to visualize and recognize underlying structures. All important trends are defined and matched against each other in a computer-based evaluation process. This makes visible especially new interactions between forces, which are negligible today, but will be more influential in the future. The following step is the design of a range of alternative scenarios. Those scenarios are a lively description of the possible worlds in which the client might have to live. They include all major aspects of life, including social and technical trends. They help to identify the required capabilities and success factors which the client needs in the relevant time frame.
The second part of fair energy's process is called RETROPOLATION. It means to come back from the various (mostly 4) imagined futures and to derive the strategic options for the client. The RETROPOLATION process is very company specific and has to be guided very skilfully by the consultants together with the client's management. Its main purpose is to define a robust, substantiated vision. It has to be simple, clear, easy to communicate and must be based on a business model of the future. It serves as starting point for the definition of the client's distinctive capabilities, which have to be built through a sequence of concrete actions.
This future scenario process is no linear extrapolation of the past, but a well-founded consequence of tomorrows influence factors. Concentrating on the development of today's trends requires a lot of flexibility and creativity, well-established principles have to be thrown over board. On the other side, fair energy's process is no forecasting, no quantitative evaluation of certainties. It is a systematic approach, based on a comprehensive trend-analysis, which opens a scope of options and therefore leads to a holistic view of the requirements and chances of the future.
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